Estadio Olimpico Universitario · Referee Salvador Perez Villalobos, Mexico · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.13 for Leon, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Leon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T01:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T03:05:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 0-2 (L)
Leon
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Queretaro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T03:05:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T03:05:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2026-01-18T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-31T01:05:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2024-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2024-04-15T00:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-0 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2023-11-01T03:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2023-01-22T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2022-07-10T00:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-3 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2022-02-13T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-1 Leon (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.