Estadio Olímpico Universitario · Referee Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina · Analysis updated 08:45 UTC
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.16 for Tigres UANL, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.16 for Tigres UANL, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 2026-10-25T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-22T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 2-3 (L)
Tigres UANL
- 2026-10-25T03:10:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is U.N.A.M. - Pumas win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.