Villa Deportiva USMP · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
U. San Martin vs Academia Cantolao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for U. San Martin and 0.57 for Academia Cantolao, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives U. San Martin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
U. San Martin win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U. San Martin home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Academia Cantolao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U. San Martin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 24% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for U. San Martin and 0.57 for Academia Cantolao, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 2–014.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 65.1% vs market 54.7%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 65.1% | 1.54 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.60 | 36.1% | 36.7% | 2.72 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 62.9% | 63.3% | 1.58 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 86.9% | 87.3% | 1.15 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.2% | 24.0% | 4.17 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 12.9% | 12.7% | 7.87 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.0% | 1.32 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 34.9% | 2.87 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
U. San Martin
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Academia Cantolao · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Comercio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Cesar Vallejo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 3-0 (W)
Academia Cantolao
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Binacional · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs U. San Martin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Molinos El Pirata · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is U. San Martin win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.