Villa Deportiva USMP · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
U. San Martin vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for U. San Martin and 1.11 for Bentín Tacna Heroica, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives U. San Martin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U. San Martin home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bentín Tacna Heroica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U. San Martin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for U. San Martin and 1.11 for Bentín Tacna Heroica, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
U. San Martin
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Academia Cantolao · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Comercio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Cesar Vallejo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 3-0 (W)
Bentín Tacna Heroica
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs U. San Martin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Universidad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantil CNI · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.