U. San Martin vs Cesar Vallejo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for U. San Martin and 0.98 for Cesar Vallejo, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives U. San Martin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

U. San Martin home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cesar Vallejo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

U. San Martin win43%

Draw29%

Cesar Vallejo win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–113.2%
0–010.8%
0–110.5%
2–08.4%

Recent form

U. San Martin

2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Academia Cantolao · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Union Comercio · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Cesar Vallejo · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 3-0 (W)

Cesar Vallejo

2026-10-07T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantil CNI · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · A vs U. San Martin · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-16T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · U. San Martin 2-0 Cesar Vallejo (Segunda División)
2026-05-17T18:10:00.000Z · U. San Martin 1-0 Cesar Vallejo (Segunda División)
2022-10-19T17:45:00.000Z · U. San Martin 1-1 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)
2022-06-19T00:30:00.000Z · U. San Martin 0-2 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)
2021-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · U. San Martin 0-1 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)
2020-09-29T20:30:00.000Z · U. San Martin 0-1 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)
2019-11-03T23:00:00.000Z · U. San Martin 1-0 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)
2019-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · U. San Martin 2-1 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)
2016-07-06T01:00:00.000Z · U. San Martin 2-2 Cesar Vallejo (Primera División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	-11	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	-43	0
1	Bentín Tacna Heroica	16	8	5	3	9	29
2	Comerciantes	16	6	8	2	9	26
3	Minas	16	6	7	3	13	25
4	Sport Huancayo 2	16	7	4	5	9	25
5	Alianza Universidad	16	5	6	5	0	21
6	Santos	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Ayacucho FC	16	5	4	7	-2	19
8	Estudiantil CNI	16	4	5	7	4	17
9	Deportivo Binacional	16	2	4	10	-39	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.