Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba · Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
UA Zacatecas vs Ensenada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for UA Zacatecas and 1.53 for Ensenada, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives UA Zacatecas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UA Zacatecas win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UA Zacatecas home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ensenada away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UA Zacatecas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for UA Zacatecas and 1.53 for Ensenada, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
UA Zacatecas
- 2026-04-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ensenada · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres de Alica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-03-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-03-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Tecos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-1 (D)
Ensenada
- 2026-04-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs UA Zacatecas · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acatlan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Reboceros La Piedad · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-03-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Colima · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UA Zacatecas win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.