Estadio El Mayayo · Analysis updated 06:26 UTC
UCAM Murcia II vs Balsicas Atlético Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for UCAM Murcia II and 1.03 for Balsicas Atlético, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives UCAM Murcia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UCAM Murcia II win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCAM Murcia II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Balsicas Atlético away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–18.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
UCAM Murcia II
- 2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcantarilla · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olímpico Totana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Javier · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Cartagena LU II · 2-2 (D)
Balsicas Atlético
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Algar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Los Garres · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UCAM Murcia II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SFC Minerva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 4-0 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-12-07T15:30:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 2-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-01-12T15:30:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 3-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2024-03-24T15:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2023-11-05T16:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 0-0 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | San Javier | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Unión Molinense | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Santa Cruz | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | UCAM Murcia II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Águilas II | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Olímpico Totana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cotillas CD | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Bala Azul | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Alcantarilla | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Balsicas Atlético | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Atlético Pulpileño | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Los Garres | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Cartagena LU II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | SFC Minerva | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Algar | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | Bullas Deportivo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UCAM Murcia II win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.