· Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
UCAM Murcia II vs Balsicas Atlético Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for UCAM Murcia II and 0.99 for Balsicas Atlético, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives UCAM Murcia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UCAM Murcia II win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCAM Murcia II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Balsicas Atlético away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
UCAM Murcia II
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balsicas Atlético · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Santomera · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muleño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 3-3 (D)
Balsicas Atlético
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Algar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Los Garres · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UCAM Murcia II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SFC Minerva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 4-0 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-12-07T15:30:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 2-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2025-01-12T15:30:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 3-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2024-03-24T15:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 1-1 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
- 2023-11-05T16:00:00.000Z · UCAM Murcia II 0-0 Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | San Javier | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Unión Molinense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Santa Cruz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Alcantarilla | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Águilas II | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Atlético Pulpileño | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Bala Azul | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Olímpico Totana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Los Garres | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Cartagena LU II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Balsicas Atlético | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Bullas Deportivo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Algar | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UCAM Murcia II win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.