UCAM Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for UCAM Murcia II and 0.96 for Mazarrón FC, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives UCAM Murcia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

UCAM Murcia II win

76.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.85 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UCAM Murcia II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazarrón FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCAM Murcia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for UCAM Murcia II and 0.96 for Mazarrón FC, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UCAM Murcia II win76%

Draw14%

Mazarrón FC win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–09.0%
2–18.6%
3–08.5%
3–18.2%
1–06.3%

Recent form

UCAM Murcia II

2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcantarilla · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olímpico Totana · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Javier · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Cartagena LU II · 2-2 (D)

Mazarrón FC

2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Molinense · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bala Azul · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cotillas CD · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	San Javier	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	3	2	2	7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Águilas II	7	2	5	0	3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Los Garres	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Algar	7	2	0	5	-9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is UCAM Murcia II win, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.