Ucam Murcia vs Málaga II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ucam Murcia and 1.53 for Málaga II, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Ucam Murcia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ucam Murcia home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Málaga II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ucam Murcia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Ucam Murcia and 1.53 for Málaga II, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ucam Murcia win41%

Draw23%

Málaga II win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–18.7%
1–28.0%
1–06.8%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Ucam Murcia

2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)

Málaga II

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almería II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico de Marbella · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cantoria · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Porcuna · 6-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.