UCD Bowl · Analysis updated 12:03 UTC
UCD vs Cork City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for UCD and 1.84 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Cork City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cork City win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cork City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cork City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for UCD and 1.84 for Cork City, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
UCD
Cork City
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wexford · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Treaty United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kerry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 75 |
| 2 | UCD | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 56 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 54 |
| 4 | Kerry FC | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 52 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -14 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -16 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -37 | 28 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cork City win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.