Estadio 25 de Noviembre · Referee Edwin Ordonez, Peru · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.78 for Cienciano, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Cienciano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV Moquegua home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cienciano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cienciano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.78 for Cienciano, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Recent form
UCV Moquegua
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 1-4 (L)
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.