Peru · Primera División · Clausura - 116:00

2 – 2

Saturday, 18 July 2026

Estadio 25 de Noviembre · Referee Jordi Espinoza, Peru · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC

UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for UCV Moquegua and 0.90 for Comerciantes Unidos, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives UCV Moquegua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

UCV Moquegua win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UCV Moquegua home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comerciantes Unidos away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCV Moquegua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for UCV Moquegua and 0.90 for Comerciantes Unidos, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

UCV Moquegua win45%

Draw29%

Comerciantes Unidos win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.5%
1–113.0%
0–011.4%
0–110.2%
2–09.2%

Recent form

UCV Moquegua

2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 1-4 (L)

Comerciantes Unidos

2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-22T18:15:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · UCV Moquegua 2-2 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)
2026-02-02T20:00:00.000Z · UCV Moquegua 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	26	56
2	Universitario	28	14	8	6	12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	14	6	8	14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	13	8	7	16	47
5	Cusco	27	14	3	10	2	45
6	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	12	7	9	-9	43
8	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	9	41
9	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	5	40
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	11	5	12	-6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	9	8	11	-10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	9	6	13	-5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	-3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	-11	28
16	ADT	28	6	8	14	-13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	6	7	15	-19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	-19	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sporting Cristal	11	7	1	3	11	22
2	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	11	22
3	Sport Huancayo	11	7	1	3	4	22
4	Universitario	11	6	3	2	3	21
5	Juan Pablo II College	11	5	4	2	8	19
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Alianza Atletico	10	6	1	3	3	19
8	Sport Boys	10	5	3	2	7	18
9	Cusco	10	6	0	4	5	18
10	Atletico Grau	11	5	2	4	1	17
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	4	16
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	-1	10
15	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	11	2	3	6	-13	9
16	UCV Moquegua	11	1	4	6	-12	7
17	ADT	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	UTC Cajamarca	11	0	2	9	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is UCV Moquegua win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.