Estadio 25 de Noviembre · Referee Sebastian Lozano, Peru · Analysis updated 08:53 UTC
UCV Moquegua vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.50 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FBC Melgar win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV Moquegua home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FBC Melgar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.50 for FBC Melgar, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
UCV Moquegua
- 2026-10-25T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Lima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-2 (L)
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T20:30:00.000Z · UCV Moquegua 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2026-06-29T18:00:00.000Z · UCV Moquegua 0-0 FBC Melgar (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-02-15T23:30:00.000Z · UCV Moquegua 0-4 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2026-01-17T19:30:00.000Z · UCV Moquegua 0-2 FBC Melgar (Friendlies Clubs)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FBC Melgar win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.