Estadio 25 de Noviembre · Referee J. C. Quiroz · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.60 for Sporting Cristal, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Sporting Cristal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV Moquegua home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Cristal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Cristal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.60 for Sporting Cristal, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
UCV Moquegua
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 1-4 (L)
Sporting Cristal
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.