Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee J. Uzcategui · Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
UCV vs Anzoátegui FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for UCV and 0.68 for Anzoátegui FC, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives UCV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UCV win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Anzoátegui FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for UCV and 0.68 for Anzoátegui FC, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–011.5%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
UCV
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 4-1 (W)
Anzoátegui FC
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UCV win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.