Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee R. Cueva · Analysis updated 05:45 UTC
UCV vs Carabobo FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for UCV and 1.14 for Carabobo FC, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives UCV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carabobo FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for UCV and 1.14 for Carabobo FC, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
UCV
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 4-1 (W)
Carabobo FC
- 2026-10-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-21T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.