Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee C. Parra · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
UCV vs Puerto Cabello Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for UCV and 1.19 for Puerto Cabello, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Puerto Cabello the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puerto Cabello away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puerto Cabello to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 28% / 30% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for UCV and 1.19 for Puerto Cabello, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–28.7%
Recent form
UCV
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 4-1 (W)
Puerto Cabello
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Carabobo FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.