Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee R. Soto · Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
UCV vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for UCV and 1.15 for Rayo Zuliano, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives UCV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UCV win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UCV home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Zuliano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UCV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for UCV and 1.15 for Rayo Zuliano, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
UCV
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 4-1 (W)
Rayo Zuliano
- 2026-10-21T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Caracas FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Lara · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UCV win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.