Estadio San Miguel · Analysis updated 17:15 UTC
UD Casetas vs Almudévar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for UD Casetas and 1.45 for Almudévar, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Almudévar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Almudévar win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UD Casetas home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almudévar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almudévar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for UD Casetas and 1.45 for Almudévar, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
UD Casetas
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Belchite 97 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrillas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CDJ Tamarite · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Monzón · 2-7 (L)
Almudévar
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ejea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuarte · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Illueca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-02T16:30:00.000Z · UD Casetas 3-1 Almudévar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2025-11-23T11:00:00.000Z · UD Casetas 1-1 Almudévar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almudévar win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.