Campo da Portela · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
UD da Serra vs Mortágua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for UD da Serra and 2.00 for Mortágua, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Mortágua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mortágua win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UD da Serra home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mortágua away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mortágua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for UD da Serra and 2.00 for Mortágua, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
UD da Serra
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Amora · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Nogueirense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao de Pombal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 2-1 (W)
Mortágua
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UD da Serra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertanense · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · UD da Serra 0-1 Mortágua (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2025-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · UD da Serra 0-0 Mortágua (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2023-02-05T15:00:00.000Z · UD da Serra 3-3 Mortágua (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2022-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · UD da Serra 1-0 Mortágua (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mortágua win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.