· Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
UD Logroñés vs Huesca II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for UD Logroñés and 0.99 for Huesca II, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives UD Logroñés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UD Logroñés win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UD Logroñés home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huesca II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD Logroñés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for UD Logroñés and 0.99 for Huesca II, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
UD Logroñés
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 4-0 (W)
Huesca II
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs La Almunia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Subiza · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sabiñánigo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UD Logroñés win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.