Estadio La Espiguera · Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
UD Melilla II vs Marbelli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for UD Melilla II and 0.55 for Marbelli, a combined total of 1.43. That distribution gives UD Melilla II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.2% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marbelli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD Melilla II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 37% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for UD Melilla II and 0.55 for Marbelli, a combined 1.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 17% and both teams to score at 25%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–024.1%
- 1–021.0%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
UD Melilla II
Marbelli
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alhaurino · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huétor Vega · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Almería II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Motril | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Marbelli | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.