Estadio Municipal · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
UD San Pedro vs Torreperogil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for UD San Pedro and 0.99 for Torreperogil, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives UD San Pedro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UD San Pedro home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torreperogil away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD San Pedro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for UD San Pedro and 0.99 for Torreperogil, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
UD San Pedro
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Armilla · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Churriana Vega · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreperogil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Porcuna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 0-0 (D)
Torreperogil
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs El Palo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alhaurino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Almería II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Marbelli | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Motril | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Málaga II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Granada II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Churriana Vega | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | UD San Pedro | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Torre del Mar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Porcuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Cantoria | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.