Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto · Referee Carlos Cañibano · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
UD Santa Marta vs Ribert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for UD Santa Marta and 1.20 for Ribert, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives UD Santa Marta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UD Santa Marta home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ribert away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD Santa Marta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for UD Santa Marta and 1.20 for Ribert, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
UD Santa Marta
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Palencia CF · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colegios Diocesanos · 3-0 (W)
Ribert
- 2026-08-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Guijuelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-04-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 0-2 (L)
- 2022-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad Rodrigo · 3-2 (W)
- 2022-04-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2022-04-03T15:00:00.000Z · UD Santa Marta 1-0 Ribert (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2021-11-21T11:00:00.000Z · UD Santa Marta 0-1 Ribert (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.