· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
UD Santa Marta vs Salamanca UDS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for UD Santa Marta and 2.25 for Salamanca UDS, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Salamanca UDS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UD Santa Marta home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salamanca UDS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salamanca UDS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for UD Santa Marta and 2.25 for Salamanca UDS, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
UD Santa Marta
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Almazán · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-2 (L)
Salamanca UDS
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Talavera · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Federacion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navalcarnero | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Recreativo Huelva | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Salamanca UDS | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Terrassa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | UD Santa Marta | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Conil | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Dos Hermanas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| 10 | Bergantiños | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Cacereño | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Comillas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Orihuela | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Saguntino | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Binéfar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Badalona II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Compostela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Derio | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Caudal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | L'Hospitalet | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Mensajero | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Torrent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Vimenor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Melilla | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Porreres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | San Juan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | San Fernando CD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | CF Talavera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Motril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | UD San Pedro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Leioa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Sporting Ceuta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.