· Analysis updated 00:14 UTC
UDIB vs El Kanemi Warriors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for UDIB and 1.31 for El Kanemi Warriors, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives UDIB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Kanemi Warriors away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UDIB to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for UDIB and 1.31 for El Kanemi Warriors, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
UDIB
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs El Kanemi Warriors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs El Kanemi Warriors · 0-3 (L)
El Kanemi Warriors
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Raja Casablanca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Raja Casablanca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UDIB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UDIB · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ikorodu City · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.