· Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Udinese vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Udinese and 4.50 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 5.23. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–4 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 win
93.4% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Udinese home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 2% / 5% / 93% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Udinese and 4.50 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined 5.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
7%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
98%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–49.2%
- 0–58.3%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–46.7%
- 0–66.2%
Recent form
Udinese
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 93.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.