Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli · Referee Paride Tremolada, Italy · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Udinese vs Lazio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Udinese and 1.17 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Udinese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Udinese home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lazio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.90 | 49.3% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +2.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 34.7% | 36.2% | 2.76 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 77.5% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.70 | 34.7% | 35.8% | 2.79 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 72.0% | 1.39 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.45 | 64.2% | 64.2% | 1.56 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.45 | 64.2% | 63.8% | 1.57 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.05 | 30.7% | 28.0% | 3.57 | -2.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.7% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -2.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Udinese
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 3-5 (L)
Lazio
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · Udinese 1-2 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2026-04-27T18:45:00.000Z · Udinese 3-3 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2025-12-27T17:00:00.000Z · Udinese 1-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2025-03-10T19:45:00.000Z · Udinese 1-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2024-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · Udinese 2-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2024-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Udinese 2-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2024-01-07T14:00:00.000Z · Udinese 1-2 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2023-05-21T18:45:00.000Z · Udinese 0-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2022-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Udinese 0-0 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2022-02-20T19:45:00.000Z · Udinese 1-1 Lazio (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.