Andorra Football Federation stadiums · Analysis updated 02:26 UTC
UE Santa Coloma vs FC Santa Coloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for UE Santa Coloma and 1.35 for FC Santa Coloma, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives FC Santa Coloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UE Santa Coloma home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Santa Coloma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
UE Santa Coloma
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Esperança d'Andorra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Penya Encarnada · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 1-1 (D)
FC Santa Coloma
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esperança d'Andorra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa de Portugal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Escaldes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-30T18:45:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 0-3 FC Santa Coloma (Copa Constitució)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 0-0 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2026-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 2-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-10-19T11:15:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-05-11T09:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 1-2 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-02-16T10:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 1-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-09-15T09:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 0-0 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2023-12-10T17:30:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 2-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2023-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · UE Santa Coloma 1-2 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Ordino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Ranger's | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.