Uhuru Stadium · Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Uganda U20 vs Sudan U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Uganda U20 and 1.04 for Sudan U20, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Uganda U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uganda U20 win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uganda U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Uganda U20 and 1.04 for Sudan U20, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 49% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Uganda U20
Sudan U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CECAFA U20 Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanzania U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Rwanda U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 3 | Ethiopia U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Uganda U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Sudan U20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Djibouti U20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | Burundi U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Kenya U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 3 | South Sudan U20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uganda U20 win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.