Complexe Sportif de Fès · Referee Djindo Louis Houngnandande, Benin · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Uganda vs Nigeria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Uganda and 2.21 for Nigeria, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Nigeria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nigeria win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uganda home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nigeria away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nigeria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Uganda and 2.21 for Nigeria, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Uganda
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Congo DR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Libya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria · 1-3 (L)
Nigeria
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guinea-Bissau · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Madagascar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-10T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Portugal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Poland · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jamaica · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mali | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Zambia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 1 | Egypt | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Uganda | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Botswana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gabon | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Mozambique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 2 | Benin | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 5 | Angola | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 6 | Comoros | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nigeria win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.