UGS vs Amical Saint-Prex Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for UGS and 1.71 for Amical Saint-Prex, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Amical Saint-Prex the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UGS home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Amical Saint-Prex away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amical Saint-Prex to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for UGS and 1.71 for Amical Saint-Prex, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UGS win36%

Draw23%

Amical Saint-Prex win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–28.6%
2–17.9%
2–26.8%
0–16.4%

Recent form

UGS

2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Collex-Bossy · 1-3 (L)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Signal · 0-3 (L)
2025-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III · 3-2 (W)
2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Martigny Sports · 2-3 (L)
2025-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Collombey-Muraz · 3-1 (W)

Amical Saint-Prex

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulle · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Liga Interregional - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Amical Saint-Prex	30	18	7	5	19	61
2	Martigny Sports	30	18	5	7	30	59
3	Collex-Bossy	30	13	13	4	18	52
4	Terre Sainte	30	12	9	9	13	45
5	Farvagny / Ogoz	30	12	8	10	4	44
6	Pully Football	30	12	7	11	-3	43
7	Olympique de Genève	30	11	10	9	1	43
8	Vernier	30	11	9	10	6	42
9	UGS	30	11	7	12	1	40
10	Concordia Lausanne	30	10	7	13	3	37
11	Signal	30	9	10	11	-4	37
12	Echichens	30	9	9	12	-7	36
13	Collombey-Muraz	30	9	8	13	-4	35
14	Romontois	30	10	5	15	-13	35
15	Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III	30	9	5	16	-15	32
16	Châtel-St-Denis	30	4	5	21	-49	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.