Uherský Brod vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Uherský Brod and 1.48 for Sigma Olomouc II, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Uherský Brod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Uherský Brod home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sigma Olomouc II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Uherský Brod win40%

Draw24%

Sigma Olomouc II win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–18.6%
1–28.2%
1–07.5%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Uherský Brod

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Uničov · 3-4 (L)

Sigma Olomouc II

2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Karviná II · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Havířov · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Vítkovice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · Uherský Brod 2-1 Sigma Olomouc II (3. liga - MSFL)
2022-03-27T08:15:00.000Z · Uherský Brod 1-2 Sigma Olomouc II (3. liga - MSFL)
2021-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · Uherský Brod 1-1 Sigma Olomouc II (3. liga - MSFL)
2020-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · Uherský Brod 1-1 Sigma Olomouc II (3. liga - MSFL)
2019-08-25T08:15:00.000Z · Uherský Brod 1-2 Sigma Olomouc II (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uničov	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Sigma Olomouc II	14	8	1	5	11	25
6	Hranice	14	7	2	5	5	23
7	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Slovácko II	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Zlín II	14	5	3	6	-4	18
12	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
13	Karviná II	14	5	2	7	-2	17
14	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	14	3	1	10	-18	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	14	2	3	9	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.