Uherský Brod vs Vrchovina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Uherský Brod and 1.15 for Vrchovina, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Uherský Brod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Uherský Brod win

65.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.42 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Uherský Brod home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vrchovina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uherský Brod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Uherský Brod and 1.15 for Vrchovina, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Uherský Brod win65%

Draw18%

Vrchovina win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–08.3%
1–17.8%
3–17.7%
1–06.8%

Recent form

Uherský Brod

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Uničov · 3-4 (L)

Vrchovina

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Unie Hlubina · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	13	8	3	2	10	27
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	7	3	3	7	24
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	5	3	5	0	18
10	Hodonín	13	5	2	6	3	17
11	Vítkovice	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
14	Vrchovina	13	4	2	7	-15	14
15	Havířov	13	2	5	6	-9	11
16	Blansko	13	2	5	6	-11	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Uherský Brod win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.