Stade Geoffroy-Guichard · Referee S. Martínez · Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Ukraine U23 vs Morocco U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ukraine U23 and 2.00 for Morocco U23, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Morocco U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco U23 win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ukraine U23 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Ukraine U23 and 2.00 for Morocco U23, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 55%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Ukraine U23
- 2024-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina U23 · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Morocco U23 · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraq U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-06-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Côte d'Ivoire U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-06-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Japan U19 · 2-1 (W)
Morocco U23
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mali U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Côte d'Ivoire U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Côte d'Ivoire U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt U23 · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco U23 win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.