· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.20 for Central Stallions, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Ulaanbaatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulaanbaatar win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulaanbaatar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Central Stallions away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Ulaanbaatar
- 2026-08-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hang Yuen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-06T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khangarid · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-06-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 2-0 (W)
Central Stallions
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amtat FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tainan City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-30T08:00:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 2-3 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2026-06-21T08:00:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 3-0 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2026-06-17T07:00:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 0-1 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2025-11-02T04:00:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 1-1 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2025-07-09T08:15:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 3-0 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2025-04-19T08:15:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 0-3 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2024-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 11-1 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2024-06-16T11:15:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 1-2 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2024-04-18T11:15:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 2-1 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2023-10-01T08:00:00.000Z · Ulaanbaatar 0-3 Central Stallions (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulaanbaatar win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.