· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Ulaanbaatar vs Deren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.01 expected goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.51 for Deren, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Ulaanbaatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulaanbaatar win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
3.01 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulaanbaatar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ulaanbaatar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.01 goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.51 for Deren, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 74%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 2–17.4%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–25.6%
- 4–15.6%
Recent form
Ulaanbaatar
- 2026-08-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hang Yuen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-06T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khangarid · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-06-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 2-0 (W)
Deren
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulaanbaatar win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.