· Analysis updated 12:00 UTC
Ulaanbaatar vs Deren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.26 for Deren, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Ulaanbaatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulaanbaatar win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulaanbaatar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ulaanbaatar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.26 for Deren, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.1%
Recent form
Ulaanbaatar
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Stallions · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Khovd Western · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Erchim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 8-0 (W)
Deren
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 25 |
| 2 | Central Stallions | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Deren | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunters | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Khovd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Erchim | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 9 |
| 7 | Amtat FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 9 |
| 8 | Khovd Western | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -23 | 6 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulaanbaatar win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.