· Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
Ulaanbaatar vs Khoromkhon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.53 for Khoromkhon, a combined total of 6.03. That distribution gives Ulaanbaatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulaanbaatar win
84.2% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulaanbaatar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khoromkhon away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ulaanbaatar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 9% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Ulaanbaatar and 1.53 for Khoromkhon, a combined 6.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.3%
- 5–15.7%
- 3–15.6%
- 4–24.8%
- 5–24.3%
Recent form
Ulaanbaatar
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Stallions · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Khovd Western · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Erchim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 8-0 (W)
Khoromkhon
- 2026-07-04T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Khovd Western · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-06-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-06-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Hunters · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-06-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 25 |
| 2 | Central Stallions | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Deren | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunters | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Khovd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Erchim | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 9 |
| 7 | Amtat FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 9 |
| 8 | Khovd Western | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -23 | 6 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulaanbaatar win, at 84.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.