· Analysis updated 06:35 UTC
Ulfstind vs Skjervøy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Ulfstind and 2.13 for Skjervøy, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Ulfstind the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulfstind win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulfstind home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skjervøy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.5%
- 3–25.8%
- 3–15.5%
- 1–25.5%
Recent form
Ulfstind
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Strømsgodset II · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrøm II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Skedsmo · 0-7 (L)
Skjervøy
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · Ulfstind 1-3 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 5)
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Ulfstind 0-2 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 5)
- 2025-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · Ulfstind 0-1 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 1)
- 2025-06-30T17:15:00.000Z · Ulfstind 6-1 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 1)
- 2024-10-27T11:00:00.000Z · Ulfstind 1-2 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 6)
- 2024-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Ulfstind 1-2 Skjervøy (3. Division - Girone 6)
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 7 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 8 | Skjetten | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 27 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -43 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulfstind win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.