· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Ulfstind vs Tromso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ulfstind and 2.25 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Tromso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tromso win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulfstind home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tromso away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tromso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Ulfstind and 2.25 for Tromso, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
Ulfstind
- 2026-10-09T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Skedsmo · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bossekop · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 1-6 (L)
Tromso
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tromso win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.