· Analysis updated 09:59 UTC
Uljanik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Uljanik and 1.30 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Uljanik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uljanik win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uljanik home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uljanik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Uljanik and 1.30 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–06.8%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Uljanik
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lucko · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 3-1 (W)
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Grobničan Čavle · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Bjelovar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Dugo Selo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Jarun | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Trnje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Uljanik | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Slavonija Požega | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Solin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Zagora | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Križevci | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Lucko | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uljanik win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.