Jessheim Stadion · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Ull/Kisa vs Kjelsås Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ull/Kisa and 2.83 for Kjelsås, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Kjelsås the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kjelsås win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ull/Kisa home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kjelsås away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kjelsås to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 15% / 16% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Ull/Kisa and 2.83 for Kjelsås, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.4%
- 0–36.1%
- 1–15.9%
Recent form
Ull/Kisa
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Junkeren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levanger · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-2 (L)
Kjelsås
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stjørdals-Blink · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skeid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsdalen Uil · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 54 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 50 |
| 3 | Levanger | 23 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 46 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 46 |
| 5 | Grorud | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 46 |
| 6 | Tromsdalen Uil | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 35 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Stjørdals-Blink | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Follo | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -23 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -44 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kjelsås win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.