· Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Ullern vs SF Grei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Ullern and 2.40 for SF Grei, a combined total of 5.05. That distribution gives Ullern the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ullern win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ullern home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SF Grei away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ullern to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 18% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Ullern and 2.40 for SF Grei, a combined 5.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.7%
- 2–15.4%
- 2–35.2%
- 1–24.9%
Recent form
Ullern
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Grei · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KFUM II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Heming · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Ready · 3-4 (L)
SF Grei
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Carl Berner · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordstrand · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · Ullern 2-3 SF Grei (3. Division - Girone 1)
3. Division - Girone 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 24 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 64 |
| 2 | Heming | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 47 |
| 3 | Gamle Oslo | 24 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 44 |
| 4 | Vålerenga II | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 40 |
| 5 | IF Ready | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 39 |
| 6 | Bærum | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Union Carl Berner | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | Frigg | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | -22 | 29 |
| 10 | KFUM II | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -13 | 28 |
| 11 | SF Grei | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | -29 | 25 |
| 12 | Ullern | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | -19 | 23 |
| 13 | Nordstrand | 24 | 6 | 2 | 16 | -18 | 20 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | -27 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ullern win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.