· Analysis updated 17:37 UTC
Ulm U19 vs Freiburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ulm U19 and 1.76 for Freiburg U19, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Freiburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Freiburg U19 win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulm U19 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Freiburg U19 away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Freiburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Ulm U19 and 1.76 for Freiburg U19, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Ulm U19
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Heidenheim U19 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandhausen U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 0-1 (L)
Freiburg U19
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Heidenheim U19 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulm U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Freiburg U19 win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.