Ulm U19 vs Heidenheim U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ulm U19 and 2.10 for Heidenheim U19, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Heidenheim U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heidenheim U19 win

54.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ulm U19 home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heidenheim U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ulm U19 win24%

Draw21%

Heidenheim U19 win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–29.5%
1–19.0%
0–27.0%
0–16.7%
1–36.6%

Recent form

Ulm U19

2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Augsburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Heidenheim U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 1-3 (L)

Heidenheim U19

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München U19 · 6-4 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandhausen U19 · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulm U19 · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · Ulm U19 1-3 Heidenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-04-09T14:30:00.000Z · Ulm U19 3-2 Heidenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2020-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · Ulm U19 1-3 Heidenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2020-02-16T12:00:00.000Z · Ulm U19 1-2 Heidenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2019-08-24T11:00:00.000Z · Ulm U19 1-1 Heidenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heidenheim U19 win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.