· Analysis updated 04:10 UTC
Ulsan Citizen vs Chuncheon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ulsan Citizen and 1.33 for Chuncheon, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Ulsan Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulsan Citizen win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulsan Citizen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chuncheon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ulsan Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Ulsan Citizen and 1.33 for Chuncheon, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Ulsan Citizen
- 2026-10-09T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Siheung Citizen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Korail · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongju HNP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan Transportation · 2-1 (W)
Chuncheon
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Changwon City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulsan Citizen win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.