Ulsan Complex Stadium · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
Ulsan Citizen vs Siheung Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ulsan Citizen and 1.57 for Siheung Citizen, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Siheung Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Siheung Citizen win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulsan Citizen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Siheung Citizen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Siheung Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 22% / 25% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Ulsan Citizen and 1.57 for Siheung Citizen, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +2.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.00 | 46.9% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.0% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.2% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 1.67 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 1.91 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 78.1% | 77.6% | 1.29 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ulsan Citizen
- 2026-10-09T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Siheung Citizen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Korail · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongju HNP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan Transportation · 2-1 (W)
Siheung Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Changwon City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Pocheon · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -29 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Siheung Citizen win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.