Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium · Referee Jong-Hyeok Kim, South Korea · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.20 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Incheon United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gwangju FC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Anyang · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 2-1 (W)
Incheon United
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-21T10:30:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2026-04-11T07:30:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2025-05-14T10:00:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 Incheon United (FA Cup)
- 2024-09-22T10:00:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2024-07-17T10:00:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Incheon United (FA Cup)
- 2024-05-29T10:30:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2024-03-17T07:30:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-3 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2023-11-24T10:30:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2023-10-08T06:00:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Incheon United (K League 1)
- 2023-07-12T10:00:00.000Z · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United (K League 1)
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -39 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.